Panthers not THAT bad yet; down Maple Leafs 4-1 in Toronto
by Donny Rivette on Mar 23, 2010 10:43 PM EDT
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Call it Scott Clemmensen's redemption.
On a night where even the most jaded Florida fan would have predicted doom against a club hanging by their final playoff sinew, the visiting Cats displayed the never-say-die stuff one only reads about in Detroit Red Wings primers and better Stallone films.
Of course, "Rambo" was the best Stallone film, crammed full of (badly rendered and non-ILM) computer-generated blood, brain matter, and ridiculously wild M60 assassinations, but that's a story for another day. An aside: Rocky III is one of my favorite don't-lift-a-finger-it's-Sunday flicks. So is Road House. No arguments, Mr. Wesley.
First impression? The Leafs were a confused bunch out of the gate; no flow, rhythm, or strategy to their attacks. Won't go so far as to claim the Cats read it all like such a bad book, but other than Phil Kessel (6 shots), there was very little to admire. The Panthers kept it simple by constantly attacking and concentrating on puck possession. Though the final shot count doesn't reflect the reality, it worked.
As a Panthers fan, I had already made the assumption that I'd be placing my head upon pillow following a scathing Leafs' victory. No way in my mind Ron Wilson's cadre was going to roll over on an evening when so much was at stake.
No matter. David Booth's two goals (one of which was pretty freaking kewl) stood tall, helped along by Michael Frolik and a Jason Garrison empty-netter to seal the evening. Radek Dvorak, Bryan McCabe, Rostislav Olesz(!), and Shawn Matthias picked up assists on the night.
The game belonged, however, to Panthers goaltender Clemmensen, who stopped 42 of 43 shots in his most commanding appearance of the 2009-10 season. For a guy who's ridden shotgun in the front seat of an emotional roller coaster all year, "Clemmer" was a sight to behold. He needed this game.
Toronto's Jean-Sebastien Giguere surrendered three goals on 28 shots, while Fredrik Sjostrom scored the lone goal, assisted by, well, no one.
Anyway, the Panthers reached 71 points. Woot.
Next up: Jacques Martin on Thursday...
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Ugh...
the Panthers can’t even tank to get a solid draft pick right… Up to 11th in the east?? Come on now… 10 games to go.
Am I a bad fan for being upset that we’ve won a couple in a row now? Whatever, sue me. That’s what a decade sans playoff gets you.
WHEN WE NEED TO WIN, WE DON"T......and WHEN WE DON'T NEED TO WIN ,WE DO
Boy…This team really frustrates me….I LOVE ‘em …BUT……it’s Tough Love!
we're not..
getting last place. why would you not at least try to go for playoffs (i know its not a great possibility) but why as a “fan” would you want to. have some pride
Because the top two ranked players in this year’s draft are potential “franchise changers”. Finishing in 9th place does nothing for the Panthers.
Enough with the Tanking
Before we won the last couple of games, Toronto was still several points beneath us in the standings, and with the way they’re playing, they’ve all but solidified bottom spot in the East, while the Oilers have reserved bottom spot overall for quite some time now. That being said, Columbus is another candidate from the West that could have sat beneath us in the standings. Also, even before we won the last two games, we were tied with Tampa, Carolina and the Islanders in the standings, with only Carolina looking like they might climb out of that hole. So the chances of us getting one of the first two picks in the draft was slim to begin with.
Then, I have to make the point that if you’re finishing just out of the playoff picture every year, your team isn’t in need of a franchise changing player from the draft, it’s in need of some decent management from the front office. If you’re a point out of the playoffs 2-3 years running, that’s something that could and should be remedied by the GM in the off season, and that’s something we’ve lacked until now hopefully. Plus we’ve been plagued with injuries the last two years. I’d find it very satisfying to either make the playoffs and still have a few nice 2nd round picks, or to at least have looked good enough down the stretch to have raised the stocks of a few certain players I’m sure Sexton might be looking to move.
Actually, the Panthers wouldn’t have to be in the bottom two spots, just close enough to improve their chances in the lottery (and at least 5th since the most you can move up in the lotto is 4 spots):
I’m aware of the way the draft lottery works, which is why I made sure to mention all of the teams that were likely to finish beneath us, lowering the odds of us getting either the 1st or 2nd pick. According to the link your provided, finishing 5th which was likely going to be our spot, would have given us an 8% percent chance…
With that said, I think it’s more valuable to make a push and improve the value of our players for deals in the off season, than bank on getting a kid who will take us to the promised land. For those who think high draft picks guarantee success, I give you the most recent example, Victor Hedman.
Doubling your chance of winning the lotto is worth giving up on a few now meaningless games.
If some other team sees someone like Olesz or Kreps in these last 10 games and wants to shell out good value to obtain them, great. I don’t see that happening though.
Also, I think it’s hard to say that Victor Hedman is a bust. Playing defense in the NHL takes much longer to learn than playing forward.
Obviously we are in disagreement. You see the games as meaningless, I think there is potential for added value. You think doubling your chances to 10% is worth telling the guys in the locker room to throw games, I think asking guys to play hard and keep morale in check is more important.
I have Lightning season tickets, Hedman is pretty terrible, and when you compare him to Tyler Myers, he’s a total bust relative to what the Lightning and everyone else in the NHL was expecting. I’ve seen his turnovers lead to goals more times than I can count, he’s not physical, he takes bad penalties, and he hasn’t seemed to grow at all despite playing with Ohlund for much of the season.
Only Question is...
If we are so close, why not tank it, take our chances in the lottery, and then (if we end up picking 3rd or later) trade 2 second round picks (or 1-2nd round pick and a swap of 1st round picks) and 1-3rd or later pick to get into the #1 or #2 spot and get Hall or Seguin? If one of those guys is supposed to instantly make a franchise 10+ points better then we would jump into the 5th or 6th playoff seed (as long as our team doesn’t spend half the year in the hospital again).
Winning the lottery will be all but impossible since our worst likely finish is fourth worst but if we are so close to being a playoff-caliber team, why not trade some of those second rounders and swap our first round pick with the lottery winner (Likely Edmonton) and get a franchise superstar for the next decade? After all if we are so close then we won’t need all those building block 2nd round picks and can use them to try and nab a superstar. Edmonton (or whoever gets the pick) might not scoff at giving up Hall to get the #5 overall pick and 1-2 second rounders and we would (potentially) get the missing piece of the puzzle.
I’m not saying it has to be turned around immediately, but how often does a talent like this come around and do you want to be so bad that you are picking first when the next guy does come around? We’ve shown, since the trade deadline, that average talent that plays with above average heart and grit can take on anybody and get the job done (unless they’re playing Washington). Now put one of the best Goalies in the league between the pipes, a superstar in the making in Hall, and three strong forwards in Weiss, Horton, and Booth out there and you will have a playoff team simply by retaining the core you have now.
Think about this, Horton and Booth had long stints off the ice, Olesz has had his worst season ever, we’ve had a permanent standby ticket for flights to Rochester, have a junior hockey coach and we still have managed the #11 spot in the East. Now, solidify our lines (no more of this 5 minutes on ice then you fly back to the Amerks garbage), see fewer injuries (no more BS hits by Flyers forwards), Olesz can only improve, and add a top flight talent like Hall. Where do you think we end up next season given those conditioins even with the Junior hockey coach?
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 24, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
You assume Edmonton and likely Toronto will want to trade their picks. If all of us think holding the #4 or #5 pick is worthless, why would franchises in greater need of a savior trade their #1 or #2 for them, even with packaging it with a couple of 2nd rounders.
Because teams like Edmonton need the picks
You don’t put up fewer than 65 points without having a team with multiple holes. Sure they could take Hall, but then what? If we offered them an opportunity to still get a quality guy at #4 or #5 plus keeping 3-4 picks for the second round, it could well be enticing enough for them to make the trade.
The initial point you made was that we are clearly close enough to not need a franchise changing player but then why do we need multiple second round picks? I agree that what we need is quality management. Just looking at the inaugural front office vs the front offices of the last decade will reveal as much. I just don’t ever want to see us this far down the standings again and can’t help but believe an offensive scoring machine would elevate this team into playoff contenders.
Imagine if we had a guy that put up 8-10 goals over that 14 game span where we couldn’t get more than 2 goals per game. Now factor that into the rest of the year. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee but if we pulled an extra 6 points from that 14 game stretch we would be in legit contention for a playoff spot. The real reason to not want the playoffs over the draft pick is that if we somehow got in, we would be swept right out by the Capitals. I don’t feel like going 0 for 10 against anyone. I also don’t see any great trade leverage coming from a good run down the stretch.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 24, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
We need multiple 2nd round picks because my guess would be that 1 or 2 AHL’ers could make the roster next year, and the Amerks will need some reinforcements.
My point wasn’t about making the playoffs, it was about playing well down the stretch. I’d hate to see the Caps go 10-0 against us too, but I do believe that playing well down the stretch might entice some GMs to shop for us. I’m also not 100% sold on “the big scoring machine.” Look at Atlanta, playing better than ever after having gotten rid of Kovalchuk, and he’s been mediocre since arriving in NJ. Sometimes it takes the sum of the right parts to win, not one fantastic part.
Couldn't agree more with the argument about Kovalchuk
Hell, look at Pittsburgh. Wasn’t it two years ago that they had Crosby and Malkin and still didn’t establish themselves as a solid playoff team until they traded for Bill Guerin?
My point being that look at our current skaters. We have a good support structure and are really just missing the needed firepower on offense and better defensive play. I’ve little doubt that the FO will be looking at an all-around blue-liner with solid defensive instincts with our first pick to give some aid to our goalies but what about the AHL’ers? Even if Hall didn’t put up 90+ points with us could he be any worse than most of our forwards now if he only put up 45 points? 45 would put him in the top 5 amongst our forwards. 45 points would also be only 36% of his AVERAGE point tally for his career with Windsor where he tallied 83 games last season meaning he is less likely to see his play suffer in the final 15 games of the NHL season. In his worst season he put up 84 points in 63 games (1.33 pts/game). Weiss has been our best guy this year and he has 54 points through 70 games (0.77 pts/game). Even at half his production (in his worst year), Hall would put up 55 points which would have put him third on last year’s team. Put that in place of Brett Maclean’s 19 points and you have a team that is all but guaranteed to finish 6th seed or higher. That is only at half his potential of his worst season.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 24, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
What are you using
to determine what Hall could score in the NHL. I’ve always wondered if someone would figure out how to convert amateur and minor league stats into NHL equivalents.
There is no tried and true method.
It’s impossible to know with certainty what a minor leaguer will produce at the next level. You have to take into account the quality of teammates and opponents, as well as differences in coaching styles. This is why I low-balled Hall’s potential output at the next level based on his output over his 3 seasons at Windsor.
To date (counting playoffs), Hall has played 208 games, scored 141 goals, and tallied 180 assists. This averages out to 0.68 goals per game and 0.87 assists per game for a total of 1.55 pts per game. Now there will always certainly be drop off due to the OHL schedule being shorter (68 games) than the NHL schedule (82 games) but as the players body adjusts to the extra games his production should rebound to some degree. My point was that if Hall’s numbers suffered a hefty dropoff, he would still be an offensive improvement for us.
Obviously he won’t tally 1.55 pts per game for us since that takes a team effort (you don’t get 180 assists unless someone puts 180 goals in the net when you pass em the puck) to get your point total that high. 1.55 ppg would require a player to score or assist on 127 goals during an 82 game season (last year Florida had a total of 234. To put in perspective of how much that number could increase, Taylor Hall played 83 games for Windsor last year and scored or assisted on 126 goals or about 54% of what the Panthers scored as a team.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 24, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
The coaching styles point is a good one.
Where’s Howie Meeker when the NHL needs him? “Skills beat systems everytime.”
It’s got to be hard to do analysis on anyone besides top scorers. Even points per minute wouldn’t mean much for guys who are given highly constrained roles.
You’re right, even if his contributions were trimmed down from his numbers in the minors, he’d be a tremendous help to the club. Matt Duchene has done a lot for the Avs despite not having lofty numbers, and he looks like he could be a regular 35+ goal scorer with a little more experience. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what transpires.
Better play= more trade value
Firstly, there are a lot of talented players on this team, even if the club hasn’t done that great. If you are going to trade a guy it’s better that everyone gets a good look at him playing well and fitting into a team. It seems reasonable to me that the better players they show themselves to be, the greater value they’ll have on the trade market.
Secondly (and much less important) even if opposing GM’s are hyper-rational guys who know there’s not much difference between a 19 goal Nathan Horton and a 20 goal Nathan Horton, their superiors in managment/ownership may not see it that way. Milestones like “20 goals” and “60 points” mean something to people, and the more the GM has to defend his choices to upper managment, the more likely he is to get in trouble if things don’t work out. That makes him more reluctant to give value in a trade.
My only Question is
What do you expect to get for any of our players that would be “expendable?” Do you expect to get anything better than a second round pick for any of our guys besides Vokoun, Horton, Booth, and Weiss? The only reason to trade away any of our guys is if we cannot afford them or they aren’t good and there aren’t any guys on this team that we can’t afford that are going to net us any kind of positive return and no one is going to give us something good for are players that aren’t.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 24, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
If you can move an 'expendible' guy for a second rounder
then do it. You can probably find someone else’s comparable expendible guy on the scrap heap later in the summer.
I don’t think a club should only trade away players when it can’t afford them or they aren’t good. Sometimes people value what you have more than you do. Going into the offseason a few years back Dallas probably didn’t think they were going to get Riberio for a tuckered out Niinimaa. Knowing Montreal, there was probably a political aspect to that trade one way or another, but it’s worked out OK so far for Dallas.
You don’t know what opportunites are going to arise, but the more attractive the trade chips are, the better.
My bad.
I’d meant to say do you think we’d get a second round pick not better than a second pick. I tried re-wording my sentence and didn’t change the round number. I see where you are going and agree that if there is a way of improving the team you take regardless of the skill of one individual guy. My main point was who do you see garnering anything of value on our team if they have a good home stretch?
I understand the value of rising player stock if you are looking to deal but I don’t see us getting anything from anyone for guys we need to get rid of. If the offer roll in then you go from there.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 25, 2010 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Nobody *wants* to finish the season last
Not even for the high draft pick. And if they thought a team was intentionally tanking games, the league would have something to say about it.
Florida Panthers: Giving the league a punching bag since 2000.
Wish we could draft a Sidney Crosby and win the Cup inside of 10 years.
Instead of not drafting a franchise changer and not making the playoffs in the same span.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 24, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
They could’ve at least gotten a Rick Nash in the 2002 draft.
Instead they now have the 2 draft picks from the JBo/Leopold deals, woohoo!
Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda, Dammit!
We coulda waited half a season longer to fire Doug Maclean.
We woulda won the Stanley Cup if we had shooters that could put a shot high over Roy’s shoulders.
We shoulda had a better front office for the last decade.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 24, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Scott Clemmensen
He never looks comfortable, but once he gets playing he gets the job done. He’s in the right place and he makes the stop. But he never looks like he’s in it. It’s weird. He looked really shaky the first time Vokoun got yanked, but played well after the first few minutes. He looked better the second time and I thought he played well on Sunday. The Rogers guys last night were going on about how well he played all night last night.
Florida Panthers: Giving the league a punching bag since 2000.
Yikes...
My original comment was meant sorta tongue-in-cheek… No professional team is going to literally tank their final games to improve a lottery chance, and I wouldn’t want the Panthers to. It’s just frustrating that every year, we are painfully obviously not talented enough to compete for 82 games, and then we make some heroic end of the year push so we end up with a mid-level draft pick that spends 2-3 years in Rochester before we get anything out of him. Look at the difference at picks 1-5 and then 10-15 from the last couple years. The top picks are or were rookie of the year candidates that are, in most cases, leading their team in scoring. The bottom half? Never heard of them.
Just frustrated, as are all Panther fans I am sure.
I don't think any of us want them to tank.
We would just like to see teams like Carolina, Toronto, and Tampa Bay make that big heroic charge to the middle of the draft order instead of us.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Mar 24, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Even though I’m still paying for the online player I haven’t watched the last 2 games and they’ve won big, so I’ll see what happens in the next game!
As for draft picks, meh, I still don’t think it’s worth it. I don’t think one draft pick is going to make that big a difference. And for people still watching the games what’s the point if for the final month of a season their team lays down and dies. That isn’t very entertaining or encouraging.
In Rochester we have been pretty critical of Ellerby and people have said we’re nuts. I think the lack of ice time is a sign of the lack of confidence in him.. hopefully he’s also getting help because he shows signs of greatness at times.
by keithwozniak on Mar 24, 2010 1:53 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
ROCHESTER
Ellerby has potential…Mathais is maturing and has looked very good the last few games ….Garrison is solid……..Repik is becoming a better off. player as the season matures….I just wish Bonneau or MacIntyre could skate better……..Big Mac is probably the Toughest guy in Hockey today.Anyone else looking good down the Keith…….Is Salak a future NHL er?
Salak might run into the dual freight trains of Markstrom and Cheverie, not to mention the Cats have a year left with Tvo (for now) and two remaining on Clemmer’s deal; kinda depends upon how likely FLA management may be willing to throw the freshies to the fire.
Salak will be an RFA in July, for what that’s worth.
by Donny Rivette on Mar 24, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Rochester and the Cats.
I always thought when I played as a Goaltender and you knew that playoffs weren’t happening you set the mind set for the next year. I truly believe that these young ones have talent and now need to mature. Look at the hard work they put in night after night, I love it. When we went to the finals in 95 we were nota team of stars, just hard working guys playing as a team, like the Giants in the Superbowl??? I think the Cats have a bright future. Salak is a good goal tender but no ready for the big spot, another he will be, He has great work ethic, always wanting to learn and I think he will be very good for sometime in the NHL..
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