Building Blocks: How will Panthers retain the blueline?
by Ryan Meier on Nov 18, 2011 11:27 AM EST
in Florida Panthers News & Analysis
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Sean Leahy over at Puck Daddy posted an article up yesterday, discussing various topics with Panthers defenseman Jason Garrison. It's a good read, and is just another example of a new trend with the Florida Panthers: good press regarding the blueline corps. From Brian Campbell's 17 points, which puts him near the top of the NHL for points by a defenseman, to the now-otherworldly play of young Dmitry Kulikov, and the feel-good story of Garrison's late rise to success, there's a hell of a lot to be talked about so far this season, and almost all of it is positive. That's quite a stark contrast to seasons past, and is clearly a boon to a team still working on finding a long-term identity.
All is peachy and wonderful with the defense this season (for the most part), and good headlines abound on the interwebs, but let's not forget that both Kulikov and Garrison are nearing the end of their current contracts. What's going to happen after this season to the current darlings of the defense?
After this season ends and summer rolls around, general manager Dale Tallon and assistant GM Mike Santos will have some decisions to make regarding the Panthers defensive corps, but thankfully, the play of several players is going to make those decisions pretty easy. Both Kulikov and Garrison will be free agents if they do not re-sign before their current deals end. Kulikov will be a restricted free agent, and due to his pedigree and his absolutely stellar play so far this season (barring some early season shakiness), he should be inked to a multi-year deal, keeping him in Florida for the foreseeable future. His maturation as a player is still continuing, but if he's already playing this well at this age and at this point in his career, the sky is the limit. The real question will be how much Kulikov is going to cost, because if he continues on the pace he's on he'll finish in the top 15 in the NHL in scoring for defenseman and post a plus rating on the season. He'll likely be looking for a big payday after a performance like that.
Garrison is currently the cheapest blueliner on the roster, and it won't stay that way after this season, even if he cools off in the scoring department (which he's showing no signs of doing at this point). His defensive play has been just as solid as his offensive production, and he's seeing regular shifts on special teams, including pairing back up with Mike Weaver to handle penalty killing duties as they did so well last season. Garrison's value to the team is unquestioned, and he will also be in line for a hefty raise, though maybe not to the level of Kulikov.
The Panthers will have almost $14.5 million committed to their defensive corps already next season, between Ed Jovanovski, Campbell, and rookie Erik Gudbranson. Those three alone are about 27% of the current salary. The difficult choices that Tallon and Santos will have are to sign Kulikov and Garrison and keep the defensive core together while not breaking the bank, leaving enough pennies in the jar to retain much of the forward talent (such as the currently-smoking-hot Kris Versteeg). The Cats are currently around $10 million below the cap, so they certainly have room to move, and knowing that the Cats are currently sitting a defensive player in the press box every night (either Gudbranson or Keaton Ellerby), you can expect to see either Ellerby or Weaver as an odd man out next season, freeing up some more cap space to commit to Garrison or Kulikov.
This does present an interesting topic for Panthers faithful and pundits alike to discuss: How much money should Florida sink into the defense? For a team that's traditionally been pretty weak at scoring from the forward position, it's been a huge boost to the team that the blueline has supplemented the forwards with such solid scoring figures from the back end. But should the Panthers commit potentially 35% of their salary to the current deals and re-signing Kulikov and Garrison? Would it be smarter, knowing some of the defensive prospects in the pipeline, to deal one of these guys while their value is elevated and get some scoring punch in return?
Time will tell how Tallon and Santos handle these situations. Florida is no doubt a team on the rise, and the depth in the minor leagues is slowing surfacing to the NHL, making some of the existing roster players expendable in the future. Guys like Colby Robak, Alex Petrovic, Rasmus Bengtsson and Jonathan Racine are all solid defensive prospects likely to have a shot at making the NHL roster someday, while the forward position is very bright with Nick Bjugstad, Quinton Howden, Jonathan Huberdeau and others set to fight for a spot on the team in coming seasons. Perhaps Tallon, knowing he's got some NHL-caliber players waiting in the wings (and on the cheap thanks to entry-level contracts) will move one or more of Florida's current defensive assets and build from within, obtaining either more forward scoring or supplementing the future with additional picks.
No matter how it shakes out, Florida has a great problem: too many quality blueliners and not enough roster spots. There's no doubt we'll be following the status of Garrison and Kulikov and their respective contracts closely this season, and it will be interesting to see how the Panthers architects control their fates despite the fantastic play of both this year.
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Fantastic article Ryan, as always.
It is one of the hard question that Tallon/Santos will have to deal with, abundance of riches (never thought I’d say that about the Panthers). With young players ready to come through, who goes? I think eventually it will come down to injury as well. Someone is bound to miss time and having that many Ds helps, so I don’t see a trade right now. Maybe closer to the playoffs. I can’t say who will go, but looking at who will stay, I think Jovo and Campbell are unmovable due to their contract. Kulikov and Gudbranson will not be moved as they are up and comers, drafted by the Panthers. It is down to Garrisson, Weaver and Ellerby.
Speaking of what I’d like to see in return… that’s a hard one. A scoring forward may impair the developement of Huberdeau / Howden and Shore, Bjugstadt, Grimaldi, etc. Maybe a high pick could work, to replenish the system once all the guys we drafted gets to RFA and, provided they pan out, warrant high salaries themselves.
Now speaking of salaries, the RFA / UFA class of forwards only include Dadonov, Versteeg and Kennedy (counting Sturm and Samuelsson out). Dadonov and Versteeg will probably warrant raises (especially Versteeg), but I think it will leave us with room to re-sign Kulikov and Garrisson and Ellerby (and bringing up Petrovic / Robak as the 7th D). The other question is: will the cats be willing to spend to the cap?
As you touch on, this will also be a problem at forward, with a lot of promising players coming through. I think the Booth trade was made partly to address this situation (Sturm and Samuelsson out, Huberdeau and Howden in).
Already questioning where money is gonna come from. this is where the Campbell contract becomes a problem.
If the rumor about Gudbranson bein in the press box cause of money is true (and if it is, he should have been sent back to juniors instead of sitting in the presser), Panthers are gonna need to trade one of Garrison and Lukikov. I’d go with Garrison presently, as Kulikov’s long term upside might have a higher ceiling. Whoever is traded, needs to be traded either for a defensive prospect with offensive ability and/or picks. The way for a small market team to keep its competitiveness is, you keep your top two defensemen, your goalie, and your top six forwards. The world is full of serviceable players for other lines.
Panthers need to develop players year in/year out if they want to stay competitive long term. Giving up a pick/ young players for short term pieces will only adversely help this organization.
I agree on the idea of constantly looking towards the future rather than the short term. Turning today’s silver into tomorrow’s gold will keep this team on the path to success in the long term, and for a franchise desperate for credibility and attendance, that’s by far more important than anything else.
Like MrOmnipotent, I believe the Panthers have a contract on the defensive end that will eventually become a problem… but it isn’t Campbell’s. It’s Tallon’s commitment to Ed Jovanovski that I feel will eventually come back to bite the Panthers.
Brian Campbell is a supreme offensive defenseman that is not an overly physical presence on the ice. At age 32, Campbell will be 36 years old by the end of the current contract. There has been a long list of point-producing defensemen that have continued a high-level of performance into their late 30’s in the NHL. Will Brian be worth $7.14 million in 2015-16? Probably not, but (barring injuries) Campbell will be a serviceable blueliner.
Jovanovski, however, is already showing signs of decline. At 35, Jovo will be gleaning $12.5 million from the Panthers in his age 36, 37, and 38 seasons (at a cap hit of $4.125 million). Jovanovski is already no longer a top pairing option on the backline and will likely fall into a specialist/bottom pairing defenseman before the halfway point of his contract; considering the competition of Kulikov, Gudbranson, Ellerby, Petrovic, Robak, etc.
Now, both Kulikov and Garrison will be getting bonuses (should Jason choose to re-sign with Florida), but how much? That figure is yet to be determined and difficult to project based on a quarter season of play. Garrison certainly has the tools to be a better than average two-way defenseman and Kulikov is a budding superstar that appears to be blossoming in his junior year. The price for both is variable, but, I think, still affordable for the Panthers.
Also, I would not be so quick to dismiss Mike Weaver or even Keaton Ellerby in favor of Alex Petrovic, Colby Robak, or any other defensive prospects. Petrovic is an impressive talent, but could use at least one year (if not two) of seasoning in the AHL while continuing his development. Robak is in his second year in professional hockey. The Panthers, if Garrison and Weaver or Ellerby return in 2012-13, would have the luxury of a two-year professional on the cusp of making the age of the NHL available for call-up or competition at only 23 years old.
Talking strictly figures, one of the smart tactics employed by Dale Tallon during the 2011 summer of spending was signing his forwards to reasonable terms and prices. Upshall, Kopecky, Goc, and Bergenheim to contracts with cap hits under $4 million. Should money need to be moved in two years time to open up roster spots or navigate the salary cap (maybe even next summer), Tallon shouldn’t have too much trouble finding suitors in the trade market.
Unless Kulikov, Garrison, or Versteeg have unreasonable asking prices, I believe all three will be back in South Florida with plenty of room in the Panthers’ budget.
Campbell’s contract could pay for Garrison’s AND Kulikov’s raises. Jovo’s would only cover one and a serviceable other. Unless of course, you really lowball both.Jovo’s contract can be bought out a lot easier than Campbell’s. There are stars of the game who aren’t earning as much as Campbell would count for against the salary cap.
by MrOmnipotent on Nov 19, 2011 3:41 AM EST up reply actions
You’re right. We should dump Campbell and his $7 mil cap hit, we’re definitely way better off without his PPG contributions.
Contemplate this. Would you rather have two defensmen, each making between $3m and $4M, that both score 40-50 points in a season, or one who might score 60 and earns $7M per? I’d personally prefer the balanced scoring.
by MrOmnipotent on Nov 19, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
I’m just curious if you honestly thought Jovo was meant to be a top pairing defenseman here? I know he got overpaid a bit, but I saw him being brought in to be a second defensive coach for a young group of kids. Any game he brought was to be used as a second or third pairing guy, mentoring a young Gudbranson. I never expected exceptional offensive output from the man. He only scored 50 points once, and 40 three times a decade ago. He’s never been a defensive specialist, so I’m wondering what you really expected from him.
Panthers need to scour the minors for more kids like Garrison. Undrafted college kids. It will enable them to leave guys like Petrovic to develop in juniors their two years and then give them time in the AHL, instead of being pressed into duty. The need to find European kids, whose rights they can hang on to without signing, while they develop overseas. But they need to keep the cupboard loaded, so they can replace guys like Garrison as they reach UFA age.
by MrOmnipotent on Nov 19, 2011 4:13 AM EST up reply actions
There are stars of the game who aren’t earning as much as Campbell would count for against the salary cap.
In my opinion, Campbell has been the best defenseman on the ice in the first quarter of the season and a primary factor in the Panthers turnaround. Considering that Florida would be below the salary cap floor without his contract and still remain about $10 million under the ceiling, the acquisition of Campbell and his $7.125 million cap hit is relatively inconsequential when compared to the value provided on the ice. Once again, will that value remain towards the end of his contract? At age 36? Most likely not, but I think the Panthers are a much better roster with Campbell and Kulikov or Garrison than a backline with Kulikov, Garrison and no Campbell.
I’m just curious if you honestly thought Jovo was meant to be a top pairing defenseman here?
Absolutely not, but Jovanovski is the oldest defenseman in the NHL making $4 million this season and the ink on his contract hasn’t even dried from the summer. I do believe that Jovo will be very valuable over the first half of his contract as a reliable, veteran presence that will help mentor the young Panthers blueliners. However, I see that value dipping significantly in Jovanovski’s age 37 and 38 seasons, his $4 million dollar salary become an unmovable hindrance to Dale Tallon.
As for the pricing of Garrison and Kulkov, the Panthers need to be careful. There are numerous cases of players having career seasons in contract years and then capitalizing in the free agent market (see Sean Bergenheim). At 27 and with a very small NHL track record, assuming that Garrison will garner $5 million in the market is unrealistic. Personally, I think Garrison will come down to earth, in terms of his statistics, and likely end up with between 15-20 goals; which is still excellent. In my opinion, Garrison could see a boost into the $2.5 – $3.5 million average salary per year; a term of two to three years.
The 2012 free agent market for defenseman in their mid-to-late 20’s is currently strong with the likes of Ryan Suter, Denis Wideman, Carlo Colaiacovo, Matt Carle, Josh Gorges, Johnny Boychuk, and Matt Hunwick; many of which have more established NHL careers. The market can certainly change from today until July 1, but Garrison will have one of the better saturated free agent markets in recent years.
I think garrison will be the odd man out as a free agent. I will be very sad to see him go but his payday is going to be sick by the end of the year maybe 5 mil per year, hard to find that booming shot, if he continues his play, it could be a bidding war for his services. weaver or Ellerby will be the of man out, doubt both though.
by Hawkseye on Nov 18, 2011 6:56 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Anyone who pays him $5 million needs to be introduced to a kettle. $3 or $3.5M, maybe $4M if there is a bidding war, but nothing more. Give him Weaver’s money and he’s making almost $2, plus performance bonuses to replicate what he’s doing this year. Let’s not forget, he’s only equaled his career total in goals, but only has two assists. its only his second full season in the NHL. He needs to prove more before he gets a $5M annual contract hit.
Even giving Kulikov more than $3M annually is too much too soon. What you’re doing is prepaying, and you could end up with another Olesz situation. When Kulikov produces two or more 50 point seasons without being a defensive reliability (like Gonchar was in his heyday), then you reward him with a big contract.
by MrOmnipotent on Nov 19, 2011 3:49 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, but there are not many scoring defensemen out there. You dont think there are bad GMs out there willing to break the bank for a good defenseman? Im sure Colorado, Toronoto, Habs, or COlumbus would love to have Garrison on their blue line. Unless, he is enamoured with playing for Florida, he could hit the free agent market and get a 5 million paycheck due to the as always, GMs willing to overpay…Heck, if Keenan find a job again, it could go upward of around 7 million.
P.S. I dont think KUli will get 3 milion only because he is an RFA
There are a lot more scoring defensemen out there than you think. Columbus possibly being one of the few lacking, but they’re in such disarray, a scoring defenseman is their last thought right now. What most teams are lacking is an elite level offensive defenseman. Many have two or three guys capable of scoring 30 plus points a season, mostly with second assists, but lack someone who puts up 50 or more points. Just because Garrison is scoring goals currently, he’s not gonna score 40 goals in the season. Its only been done 3 times in history and not since the 80’s has anyone scored 37. No one has broken 30 goals from the back end since Kevin Hatcher did it in 1993, almost 20 years ago. And you can count on one hand how many have scored 25 or more in the last 15 years. You’re slightly over valuing Garrison’s worth.
I may have skipped the year accidentally, using the NHL‘s as there’s no comprehensive, quick to find, list of highest scoring, single season defensemen beyond the top five or seven years. I tried to scroll through all those years using the NHL’s page.
But it still doesn’t change the fact, Garrison isn’t of that level of player.
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