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Building a Winner in Florida: Defense

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General Manager Dale Tallon has proclaimed repeatedly that he doesn't want to build a playoff team in Florida, he wants to build a Stanley Cup Champion. But what kind of roster makes this dream possible? In this series, I'll break down what types of players are needed to win a cup and what the Florida Panthers already have. For a recap of the forwards, click here.

Championship teams are built from the blueline out, whether it takes a franchise defenseman or a group of hardworking blue collar guys who get the job done. Since the lockout, winning the Stanley Cup has taken much more than flashy offensive threats; it's taken shutdown defensemen and power play quarterbacks, players who eat minutes and break up plays. For Panthers fans who dream of winning the Cup, rest assured that the blue collar defensive corps is here and the franchise player is coming. Breakdown and a profound conclusion after the jump.

Star-divide

After a lackluster 2009-10 season defensively, it was clear that Dale Tallon wished to revamp his team's defense. Tallon didn't go about this quietly, after shipping out Keith Ballard Tallon drafted 4 defensemen including Erik Gudbranson 3rd overall and Alex Petrovic at 36th overall. Tallon would fill roster spots formerly held by Dennis Seidenberg, Jordan Leopold and Ballard with Dennis Wideman and Mike Weaver, as well as a promotion for Jason Garrison and giving Keaton Ellerby a chance to compete for a spot. Dale also made a brilliant move in hiring former Panther Gord Murphy as an assistant coach (defense). These changes accomplished a good deal towards making the Panthers a legitimate contender, at least defensively. 

The table below shows the regular season statistics of teams who would go on to win the Stanley Cup that year compared with the 2010-11 Florida Panthers. The two stats that best indicate the effectiveness of a team's defense are goals against/ game (GA/G) and penalty kill percentage (PK%). Also included are 20+ point scoring defensemen that year.

Team Season GA/G GA/G rank PK% PK% rank 20+ points
Carolina 05-06 3.15 20th 81.8% 19th 4
Anaheim 06-07 2.42 7th 85.1% 5th 3
Detroit 07-08 2.18 1st 84.0% 8th 3
Pittsburgh 08-09 2.84 17th 82.7% 8th 2
Chicago 09-10 2.48 6th 85.3% 4th 4
Florida 10-11 2.71 14th 84.6% 6th 3

 

The Panthers, despite finishing 28th in the league put up numbers comparable to those of teams who went on to win the Stanley Cup. The Panthers finished with better numbers this season than both the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins did when they won the Cup, yet the Panthers are preparing for the draft in June instead of lacing up their skates for the Finals. Looking solely at the table, would you have guessed that the Panthers are a rebuilding team? The only difference between most of these teams and the Panthers was one defensive superstar, but other than that, the statistics and rosters were very similar.  Again, remember that these numbers were pulled down a bit after a post-deadline nosedive, but even so the Panthers defense was something special this year. For a team that struggled to score, 18 one goal losses (1st in the league) speaks to how well the Panthers defense kept the team in the game, even if the final result was a loss.

Look at the Panthers defensemen throughout most of last season: Wideman, Bryan McCabe, Garrison, Weaver, Dmitry Kulikov, Ellerby, Bryan Allen and Clay Wilson. Are these defensemen the Scott Niedermayers and Chris Prongers, the Nicklas Lidstroms and Brian Rafalskis you've seen on recent Cup winning teams? The bright spot of last season's team was the defense, not because they were superstars being paid superstar salaries and held to superstar expectations, but because they were a bunch of players mostly unknown outside of Florida who formed chemistry and exceeded expectations. Imagine what adding a player like Erik Gudbranson or Adam Larrson (or both) to the roster could mean for the blueline, not to mention other prospects like Alex Petrovic and Colby Robak we might see down the road.

Although Tallon shipped out Allen and McCabe at the deadline, the Panthers still have four blueliners under contract for the 2011-12 season (Weaver, Garrison, Kulikov, Ellerby) while only Joe Callahan and Alexander Sulzer are UFAs, so most of the defense is still intact but has room for additions. Hopefully these four can build upon a good season and recreate their success while the younger defensemen continue to gain experience.

So now for the profound conclusion: it is my personal belief that the Panthers defensive unit for next season would be capable of a deep playoff run or even winning the Stanley Cup. The reason I say this is not based entirely on last season's stats (though they are a good indicator) but also on the emergence and potential of young defensemen Dmitry Kulikov and Keaton Ellerby. The pair had difficult stretches last season but have paid their dues and can really benefit from the teachings and leadership of Jason Garrison and Mike Weaver. Given the early part of the season to familiarize and build off of one another, these players could conquer the opposition. The stay-at-home style of Weaver paired with the jump-into-the-play Garrison formed an exciting and dominant line late last season, and unless there is a major defensive acquisition this summer, this looks to be the top line going into 2011-12. Add to that the young speed line of Kulikov and Ellerby and perhaps the long-awaited arrival of Erik Gudbranson paired with someone else, you've got a formidable defense. Give these six players some production from the forward lines and the Panthers might be on the other side of the one-goal per game statistic.

Stanley Cup Champions balance forward lines and defensive lines in the same way, they balance one or two superstars with a crew of hardworking but equally important players. As of now, the Panthers do not have the defensive superstar (whose name might be Erik) yet, but they have four very good players who form two solid lines that keep the team in games. The foundation is in place for a Cup winning defensive unit, all that is needed is a few minor changes here and there to ensure defensive success while the offense catches up.

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Let's say Guds is the 5th d-man

Who on the UFA market would make a good d-partner with him?

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by JMarushin on Jun 13, 2011 9:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Well, I wouldnt want to break up the Weaver-Garrison line but I think Guds could learn a lot from Weaver, then have Wilson as the 6th d-man. As far as free agents: Bryan McCabe is still out there, Scott Hannan would be great, Kevin Bieksa, Christian Ehrhoff maybe even Shane O’Brien

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by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not a UFA, but Ballard could be available for the right price.

I kid.

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Only if Garth puts Grabner on waivers.

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by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

All those would be good choices probably, either someone he can learn from or someone who would fit in with him

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by JMarushin on Jun 13, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

 I have a feeling that Tallon might go after Bieksa—he’s had a great playoffs, and really fits the teams identity, what’s more is, he’s a good player for Gudbranson to model himself after.

by Craig Fischer on Jun 13, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bieksa

Would be a sweet pickup, if the Nucks let him walk that is. He’d bring some swagger and personality to the team too.

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by JMarushin on Jun 13, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nucks were ready to let him walk last year, correct?

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by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

 They were—and I figure they can only bring back one of either Ehrhoff and Bieksa—which is a very tough decision to make.

by Craig Fischer on Jun 13, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

VAN’s got a lot of guys to re-sign; currently spending $46M on 13 players.

Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, and they were shopping him earlier in the year.

The playoffs might make them reconsider, but that cap situation might mean he could be freed up. I think it a foregone conclusion that Ehrhoff is out but I’d rather have Bieksa over him.

Unashamed Alex Burrows Fanboy, MN Wild Lover, and believer in the FLA Cats Blueprint
Hockey Wilderness Fantasy Team: 12th Legion
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by JMarushin on Jun 13, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great read......

Chris, you’ve done it again.

by LAUSMAN on Jun 13, 2011 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

My pleasure!

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by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

+3

Unashamed Alex Burrows Fanboy, MN Wild Lover, and believer in the FLA Cats Blueprint
Hockey Wilderness Fantasy Team: 12th Legion
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by JMarushin on Jun 13, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

You guys are great :)

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When Olesz skates, empires will fall
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by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

+5

Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bieksa would be awesome. Not likely though. How bout Eddie Jo? He can still bring it.
And look out for Alex Petrovic. He will be here sooner than you think!

CFS93

by chesterbardo on Jun 13, 2011 10:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

JovoCop:

66 and 50 games-played in last two seasons, with 34 and 14 points, respectfully. He’ll be 35 in 2 weeks.

Something to ponder.

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Er, “respectively”

Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 4:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Petrovic:

57 points (7) goals in 69 games played with Red Deer. Had 6 assists in 9 playoff games as well.

Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Amazing numbers for a defenseman! +27 and 140PIMs, this kid is going to be fun!

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When Olesz skates, empires will fall
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by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thats what I was thinking

Unless he signes with Detroit and wants a cup, but I think he’d be a great mentor for gudbranson they play the same type of game and I think he would be great here. And the fans would embrace the deal.

And no way vancouver lets Bieksa walk after this playoff performance

by GoCats1996 on Jun 13, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wings should take a long look at Jovanovski considering they are likely to lose a few very solid veterns

Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great article, again….rec’d!

by panthersfan27 on Jun 13, 2011 3:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Interesting thought: would any of you trade gudbranson and something else (one or two of our useless 3rds maybe) for a pick to use on larsson given that we retain our 3rd overall?

by pukeoncops on Jun 13, 2011 5:53 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Honest question: is Larsson that much “better” than Gudbranson, depending on needs?

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

may be more sign able…and offensively minded

by Colt1235 on Jun 13, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

As far as offense I dont see much difference, and dont worry about signing Erik, its going to happen eventually

The unaimed arrow never misses
When Olesz skates, empires will fall
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by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Larsson w/Skelleftea in ’10-11: 37gp 1g-8a 9p 41pim; w/Sweden @ ’11 WJC: 6gp 1g-3a 4p 4pim

Gudbranson w/Kingston in ’10-11: 44gp 12g-22a 34p 105pim; playoffs: 5gp 1g-3a 4p 10pim

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 6:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Those numbers are apples and oranges. You have Guds who is one of the elder statesmen in juniors now, compared to Larsson who is a boy among men in the Elitserien.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 13, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed completely, but current stats are unavoidable evils.

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

When adding in more situational stats, like comparing the lines they played against and such, you get a better idea of their production. Case in point, when Ottawa was touting Havlat as trade bait in 2003, Havlat was mostly scoring against the opposing team’s thirdline.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 13, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

First, Goals against a game isn’t a sign of the defense. Its a sign of a good goalie. Shots allowed is more a testament of a good defensive unit. Teams have had low goals against numbers, but allowed a crapload of shots per game in the past. Good defense causes turnovers, or doesn’t allow quality shots on net (Or scoring chances as the stat is called now).

Eddie Jo would be a solid siging if to a short term contract. Turning 35, even if he retires, his money won’t come off the books in future years. The two names I would look to sign are Eric Brewer and Joni Pitkanen. Or even Marc-Andre Bergeron, to enable Gudsbranson a chance to work on his defensive game in the NHL. All can be stuck in the minors, if they don’t work out, and the money come off the books. But they need someone who can mentor the kid, something Bouwmeester never had.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 13, 2011 6:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I like the Jovo-nurturing-Gudbranson aspect a lot, MrO.

Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I needed something to go with PK%, and in my opinion GA/G is the next best defensive stat. Shots can mean anything from anywhere.

The unaimed arrow never misses
When Olesz skates, empires will fall
Twitterz Marmotz Boudreauz

by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s why they now have the second stats based on stats, scoring chances, meaning the shot actually had a chance to go in the net.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 13, 2011 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

based on shots, sorry.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 13, 2011 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t say GA/G is a sign of a good goalie (look at Brian Boucher v. Ryan Miller or Anaheim v. New Jersey), I’d simply say that goals are not a good metric to judge the quality of a team’s defensive unit.

Goals are too much a product of luck, defense, and goaltending to be able to speak for any one area in particular, so while I share your concern about using GA/G, I disagree it speaks to the skill of the goaltending.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 13, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

The aspect of Jovo coming to play and mentor would be a bit ironic, as Gord Murphy was his mentor and on the same pairing with him Jovo’s rookie year. So Guds would have two potentially positive influences helping him along.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 13, 2011 6:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Would be mucho awesome to see him retire in Panthers red

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Odds are better that he does re-sign, given the sales pitch he’s likely to get from Tallon/Santos to remain.

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

if so, when and what terms (roughly) — years and dollars.
or is he off to the KHL a la Evgeni Nabakov last year?

by Diomedes7 on Jun 13, 2011 7:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Two years, maximum. $ are anyone’s guess in this market.

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d give Vokoun a 4 yr contract, if he signs on or before July 1st. Something like a 7-5-3-1 with a $4 mil cap hit. Markstrom earns the job then and isn’t handed it. Maybe 8-6-4-2. But if he signs on or after his birthday, the dollar and length severely depreciate on the offer.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 13, 2011 8:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Voky genuinely wants to keep his options open if the Panthers cant win a cup in 4, he might go for a 2 year and leave then

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When Olesz skates, empires will fall
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by Chris S Roberts on Jun 13, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Vokoun has a small window of opportunity due to age, to be a starter and win a cup or not. If he wants to win a Cup, he’s leaving Florida this summer. Not waiting two years when the chances of his play can be greatly diminished. See Nabokov.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 14, 2011 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

It’s affordable for the club, no doubt, and I follow the psychological route (re: Markstrom) you’re going with this. No matter what logic is inserted, it’s still a very long contract for a soon-to-be-35 year-old goaltender. He’d sign that in a heartbeat, of course, if the front-loading option is available – and legal – as would the club.

One of those strange things in our universe that the guy’s birthday is July 2nd.

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by Donny Rivette on Jun 13, 2011 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

The contract is legal, as he’d be 39 and entering into UFA or retirement when the contract expires. If Markstrom or someone else takes the job from him in two seasons or so, while his cap hit might be four or five million, the Panthers would only be parking one or two if he’s sent to the minors. Its not like the Panthers are tryin to pay him until he is in his mid 40s and giving him a front loaded contract, which is where all the discrepancy from last summer’s contracts came into play. Not everyone is a Recchi or Chelios. How many goalies play at the level of Broduer or Hasek past the age of 40, seriously? But again, he’d have to sign by 11:59 July 1st or the contract goes in the recycle bin. That’s the incentive of makin it a little pricier and a little longer, to get his name on the dotted line, while also ensuring the flexibility of gettin his numbers off the books, if need arises.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 14, 2011 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Vokoun doesn’t need to sign by July 1st since the age is determined on June 30th. If he signs on July 4th (two days after his 35th birthday), it won’t be a 35+ contract, at least according to CapGeek. So no need to worry about making him sign it soon.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 14, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

First I’ve heard of that. I forget where I heard different, but I do recall there being an issue with a player who signed days after his 35th birthday and how it changed the aspects of his contract.

by MrOmnipotent on Jun 15, 2011 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fascinating. Would be interested to see that because CapGeek says otherwise.

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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 16, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

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