Quickie Poll: About that trade deadline...
by Donny Rivette on Jan 31, 2012 5:50 PM EST
in Florida Panthers Opinion
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PrintWe'll keep this astoundingly easy: given a very hypothetical two choices (actually three, including the "too soon" option) where do you stand on the Panthers' lineup with four weeks remaining before the NHL Trading Deadline? We're not going to lay out a half-dozen obvious scenarios or player targets; you know the names, you know who you would select, and presumably which of the following options you'd own. Again...this focuses specifically on whether to deal prime prospects for established scorers; in essence surrendering a potential long-term piece for (again, potential) short-term solution. The subject had a lot of attention in today's Caterwaul, so have at it.
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What about retaining Huber and still putting something together for some help with a “named” player.
by Rob PKane McMahon on Jan 31, 2012 5:54 PM EST reply actions
The point was in using A1 prospects as trade bait. Not much else to deal with anyway, short of Weiss or Markstrom.
Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus
by Donny Rivette on Jan 31, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
Any chance we can trade draft picks and someone not named Huberdeau, Howden, or Bjugstad? I think those 3 will be top 2 forwards in a couple years, and I’ll take the potential the 3 of them together bring over whatever help an extra forward might bring this season, when I think it’s clear we “might” be a playoff team, but we’re not looking at a serious run even with an extra top line guy.
It can certainly happen, but I didn’t include draft choices as the primary asset in a deal because even a first-rounder (with secondary pieces) is probably unlikely to bring in a “game-changer” as someone noted earlier today.
Really just looking to see how the base values these prospects vs an immediate injection of offense, with a playoff position potentially on the line.
Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus
by Donny Rivette on Jan 31, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Granted Carter is having an off year he’s still one of those names being thrown around.. while I wouldnt want him here in Florida he’s the calibur of player stated in those “big name” guys.. columbus grabbed him for a 1st rounder, Voracek who does have some up side but never developed like they thought he would So in a sense like I said above, 1st rounders really are underrated when it comes to value to GMs
by Rob PKane McMahon on Jan 31, 2012 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
Regardless of his recent struggles Carter is indeed a Big Name.
Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus
by Donny Rivette on Jan 31, 2012 6:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Of course, Voracek is doing ok with the Flyers on a line with Max Talbot, and Claude Giroux has taken Carter’s place, so the Flyers in the short term haven’t done too badly with that trade. Giroux, of course, having been what made Carter expendable in the first place.
"Shut up, Pierre!" -Everyone
Litter Box Cats - Your Panthers Colossus.
Based off of how Tallon built the Hawks and where our team is at currently I’d be willing to drop a first round pick to grab some talent to help us out. Some people under value draft picks but they really do fetch a decent haul. Also based on how he built the hawks and interviews of himself from this past summer he has stated he does not want to be drafting in the top half again so I could def see a move coming. With him potentially being aggressive in free agency again with some of the bigger names.
by Rob PKane McMahon on Jan 31, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
stated he does not want to be drafting in the top half again
If he’s out of the top half, I’d expect him to make a deal to get into it.
Litter Box Cats - Your tarp-free Florida Panthers Colossus
by Donny Rivette on Jan 31, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
This is reasonable. I can see Tallon trading a first round pick in a deal with maybe a couple of rentals for someone else’s rental, if for no other reason than he had so many first round picks the last couple of years.
But, I think what he does will be largely dependent on who is available between now and draft day. I just don’t think there are going to be any quality forwards worth going for as of right now. Obviously, things can change in the space of four weeks. If the right team turns out to be sellers, someone might become available for a price that’s worth giving up.
"Shut up, Pierre!" -Everyone
Litter Box Cats - Your Panthers Colossus.
Yea I guess it just depends on what “big name” is involved and whether or not he’s going to be here for 2-3 years at least as part of this team or just a pending UFA trying to get us a 7th seed and 1st round matchup (exit) against Boston or something. I guess the question is really after our start, would missing the playoffs this year but having the potential to be contenders in 2-3 years with our pieces be better or worse than a 7th-8th seed but losing one or two of our top tier prospects?
(and yes, I realize the division is there to be won, Washington has just as bad an injury bug as we do. I just don’t see them slowing down enough and I don’t know how much of a late season run we have in us)
I’ve been all for missing the playoffs for another season, and gettin another high draft pick since before the season started. As much as people seem to think this team is deep in prospects, its not. There’s no depth of top end players. Even by Hockey Future’s standards, a lot of the players are rated as third liners, and most likely won’t even reach that potential level. Trading away any top line prospects now, even for a Carter or Ryan, would be stupid.
Oh, and I have thought since 2003 that Carter was the man Florida should have gone after. I’ve liked the kid that long. But I wouldn’t sacrifice two or three players for one. I wouldn’t make the Bure mistake again essentially.
by MrOmnipotent on Jan 31, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
Not quite sure where you’ve been looking. HockeysFuture.com has us #1. or at least the November update I’m looking at. The first line literally reads “With 23 selections in the last two drafts, ever position in the Panthers organization is loaded with top-end talent and solid depth.” Last summer, HockeyProspectus was a little more conservative but still listed us at 9 with 5 of our top 6 prospects being forwards.
I know you like to play devils advocate here, or maybe you really are more pessimistic than I am (which is hard to imagine, lol), but I like to think that in 2-3 years, we’re going to have a really good core of young forwards.
You need to look at what the individual players are rated as. Most are in the 6-7 range, which is third liner potential, but rated as a D, which is unlikely to reach potential. Panthers are rated as high as they are, because they have a lot of prospects currently, but not a lot of top line prospects.
HF’s ratings explained here.
Yes, I’m the Devil’s advocate more often than not, and a lot more pessimistic, but this organization has conditioned me to be so after all the shenanigans that have been played over the last decade plus. I’ve grown from being a diehard Panther fan to being a diehard hockey fan, with a preference of the Panthers that can look at the team some what objectionally. But they have done nothing really to show they deserve the affection, like they one deserved. I expect the worst, and hope for a surprise.
thanks for this post. A lot of people seem to think everyone of our prospects is going to be a top six forward.
This does seem to be the case. Realistically, we’re looking at a good chance of one or two. If we’re lucky, two or three. Keeping in mind that this is three to four years down the road. In that time frame, we’re probably not looking at a Howden-Bjugstad-Huberdeau line on top with Grimaldi, et al. on the second line as much something like:
Free agent acquisition 1-Weiss/free agent acquisition 2-Huberdeau
Flash-Weiss/Matthias-Versteeg/Kopecky
Howden/Bjugstad/Bergenheim-Matthias/Goc-Upshall/Kopecky
Prospect-Prospect-Prospect/Skille
That will probably be dead wrong, too, but that’s the sort of thing that can be expected. A mix of current prospects, guys on the roster now and a couple of guys that are brought in when it’s time to make the push. All those guys that got drafted the last two years aren’t going to make the team. We’ll be lucky if half of them turn out to be NHL players.
"Shut up, Pierre!" -Everyone
Litter Box Cats - Your Panthers Colossus.
Best case scenario for many of them is, they make it to San Antonio and produce well enough to become better trade pieces. Either lookin good enough to solicit a pick in a future draft, that was higher than they were drafted, or as sweetener in a deal. That’s not me hopin they fail. That’s just what I expect of them. I hope they all develop into first liners, but god knows, that’s just not reality.
I think there’s going to be a few serviceable second and third line NHL’ers in the bunch. But there’s no question that most of them should toil in the AHL for awhile before being given a shot.
With all our forwards healthy, we have 15 skaters or 5 full lines. This puts 3 in the press box giving KD lots of options. More, this team Tallon and Santos assembled has a good combination of experience and players coming into the prime age of their careers. We can still make some noise and think we will. I would not jump the gun on giving up such a high pick or prospect.
CFS93
Of course, with all of the defensemen also healthy, that puts the team over the roster limit. If everyone gets healthy before the deadline, or it looks like everyone’s going to be healthy, someone gets traded. If it happens after, then someone gets put on waivers.
"Shut up, Pierre!" -Everyone
Litter Box Cats - Your Panthers Colossus.
It really doesn’t matter who you bring in to juice the offense of this team, cause if you can’t stop the opposing team from scoring three goals a game, the playoff future of this team is gonna be short. Very short. Like New Jersey series short, where you knew the team was out of it five minutes into game three. That year, the Panthers had all world scorer Bure, Whitney, Parrish, Kozlov, Mellanby, among other scorers and the shut down defense negated it. You gotta keep the puck out of your net first, to win a game.
Isn’t Florida like 4th in the east in GA? As young as we are in the back, I don’t think its our main concern right now. Really once you get past NY and BOS, the east is pretty open… a piece or two might be the difference between playing one of those two or playing a New Jersey or Ottawa.
You can’t take one stat and base performance off of it. As I had pointed out earlier in the season (and I don’t have the time to track the stats), Theo’s record when giving up 3 or more goals was a losing one. But when giving up 2 or less, he was almost undefeated (which I gave him credit for, for those who think I only talk negative). And don’t be so quick to discard a team like Ottawa. They’re very similar currently as the Panthers with pretty much one scoring line, and a couple defensemen chipping in.
This team doens’t need a piece or two. It needs an entire second scoring line.
Well yea, but I’m pretty sure if you look league wide, if you give up 3 or more, your chances of losing increase exponentially over if you give up 2 or fewer… the same way that when we score 3 or more, we tend to win more than when we score 2 or fewer…
I’m not discounting anyone, but given the choice of a 1st round matchup with Lundqvist or Anderson… I’ll take my chances.
by kSelvig on Feb 1, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Personally, I’ve seen Anderson go on a hot streak that worries me more than Lundqvist’s standard play. Lundqvist doesn’t go on a lot of hot streaks. Just a lot of standard, exceptional play. But a goalie on a hot streak affects a team more than steady play by one of the best in the league.
Anderson played exceptional in the SJS playoff series
I’m putting here for reflection later on in the season…. #14 Tomas [Fleischmann] is getting a 40G season. FLASH COUNT: 16G/19A
by RPC on Sep 17, 2011 5:20 PM MDT
Find me on Twidduh And look at my Marmots
by Chris S Roberts on Feb 1, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
So heres my opinion…
Its fair to say the reason FLA has been so bad for so long is the complete lack of a prospect pool to supplement talent into the roster. Florida’s home grown talent has been terrible for so long, whether you point the blame to trading away picks, busts or what have you. We are just now seeing that void closing as 3 good drafts from Sexton, Luce and Tallon look to produce some NHL level talent, even if most only peak as 3rd liners.
Though it is still an inexact science, drafting players has come a long way in the last few years as GMs and scouts pick up their game. The prominence of Anthony Stewarts, Kendall McArdles and Angelo Espositos are (slowly) slipping away. Players are stepping up their game to be drafted, especially as the game grows. GMs may have been willing to trade 1sts and 2nds more prevalently in years past, but theyre now hanging on a little tighter since even most 3rd rounders have a chance of becoming something much bigger. Dominic Moore is no longer worth a 2nd round pick, so to speak.
Some head scout/GM pairs are better at drafting than others. If you look at the last two Tallon drafts, you can see they’ve been pretty good, probably above average at least. Guds, Bjugstad, Howden, McFarland, Petrovic, Hubs, Grimaldi, Trochek, Rau…all guys with some good potential to make the club in coming years, or at least call-up potential like Repik. Tallon/Luce has hit a hot streak with drafting lately, and I’m sure they recognize that. I doubt they’re looking to cut down the number of picks they have for this summer or the next. They want to fill the organization with potential, something we didnt see in years past. I say let them do it.
………………………………….
Now, as far as trading for big names to jumpstart scoring, dont get ahead of yourselves. No one in their right mind is going to trade for Carter, 40 goal potential or not, he still has too many things making him ‘risky’. I give it <1% chance Tallon makes an offer, even though Carters trade value is seemingly at an all time low. That leaves <.000001% of a chance Tallon will trade for Ryan, or Parise, or anyone like that. The trade value is too high and the prospect pool is still a bit too thin to siphon off 1st rounders for them. Its just not happening.
And as for making a big trade for scoring, or filling that 2nd line center hole (seriously, how many teams have the same problems?), whats the rush? Alex said it perfectly in the caterwaul, its not about this season. If it was about this season Tallon would have traded away every pick from now to 2020 for scoring.
The general consensus is that Huberdeau will be playing with FLA next year(and really, why wouldnt he?), theres your projected 30-40 goal scorer. And what does it cost us to let Hubs grow into that role? Nothing. In the next few years we’ll hopefully see Howden, Shore, Bjugstad. Markstrom should be the #1 by then. We may even see Petrovic filling in gaps in the D. They only cost us patience, something FLA hasnt had nearly enough of. And who says Tallon wont add in more scoring during the next FA day, or hit a NHL ready gem in the draft? Its not like our current roster is set in stone, Tallon will swap in new parts if he sees fit.
………………………………….
So where does this leave us for the deadline? I voted too soon, since this month is make or break, but there are two likely outcomes:
1) FLA is still in the hunt for the division, and at worst will end up with the 8th seed. Great! Swing a trade to fill in the holes, maybe a PK/PP specialist, a faceoff man, a 3rd line upgrade, but steer clear of big names with big pricetags. Think Radek Dvorak trade from ATL’s perspective.
2) FLA is just outside of the playoff race and the division is lost. Uh-oh. dump the UFA’s, firesale other spare parts for draft picks. Make NO trades to try to spark a playoff push unless they are extremely minor. If the team miraculously gets in, great. If not, better luck next year.
I’m putting here for reflection later on in the season…. #14 Tomas [Fleischmann] is getting a 40G season. FLASH COUNT: 16G/19A
by RPC on Sep 17, 2011 5:20 PM MDT
Find me on Twidduh And look at my Marmots
by Chris S Roberts on Jan 31, 2012 11:06 PM EST reply actions
If the team miraculously gets in, great. If not, better luck next year.
That right there should be what this entire season has been all about. Too many are gettin over zealous, because they’re tired of losing and they see signs of life for a playoff team.
I have to agree. I am in the same boat as Mr. O this season, in that I feel this team is better off staying the long-term course of action than trying to get in to the playoffs this season with a lineup that, in all reality, isn’t going to challenge for a Cup by trading away future assets. Sure, they could surprise us all, because once a team gets into the playoffs you never know what can happen. However, it’s much more likely this team will be out in the first or second round due to lack of scoring depth and trouble consistently shutting down opposition’s scoring. Adding a guy like Jeff Carter or Bobby Ryan would give the Panthers a finisher they need, but it wouldn’t be enough. It’s not worth mortgaging any of the future for this year.
I also think that Huberdeau and Bjugstad are top-end players, likely to be 1st or 2nd line players in the NHL. Aside from that, Florida has a lot of guys that are second or third line players in their system. Howden, Shore, Trocheck, Grimaldi and others will likely peak as second line players. That’s all the more reason for Tallon to retain first-round picks and not deal them unless it’s a truly worthwhile deal. As Chris stated, they are that much more valuable in today’s NHL, where home-grown talent is highly valued due to the overall value to the team, financially or otherwise.
In all honestly, I hope the Panthers can make the playoffs, but I’d like to see Dale and Mike turn some of the UFA’s into picks, and maybe move a guy who is overachieving (maybe Garrison) for some big returns, if possible.
I’ll third that. Dale Tallon has said from the beginning that he was committed to building a Cup team and he was committed to doing a proper, long term build, which is the reason I’ve been so high on his performance to date. Not because I think he hasn’t made any mistakes, but because he’s shown a commitment to building a winner and not giving up long-term performance for short-term gains like making the playoffs to get bounced in one round. I think he wants to make the playoffs this year, but I think he’s also not willing to make an insane deal for a big name guy at the deadline.
Also, that’s how a proper rebuild works. If you get in the playoffs right away, great. If you don’t, build on the positives and make fixes so you make it the next year. I still love Tallon’s quote at one of his first STH town halls last year. When someone stressed the importance of just making the playoffs, his response was “Be careful what you wish for.”
"Shut up, Pierre!" -Everyone
Litter Box Cats - Your Panthers Colossus.
Its a miracle!
I’m putting here for reflection later on in the season…. #14 Tomas [Fleischmann] is getting a 40G season. FLASH COUNT: 16G/19A
by RPC on Sep 17, 2011 5:20 PM MDT
Find me on Twidduh And look at my Marmots
by Chris S Roberts on Feb 1, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Chris, I agree with most of your post. While I would be for bringing in more scoring for a hypothetical package of a non first line roster forward, a pick and Howden or Shore I wouldn’t touch the likes of Hubs, Bjugs or Marky. What I think will happen is the Panthers will swap out a forward or two for a forward or two from a team that’s out of the race.
While the long term is obviously more important than this year I disagree with Alex’s sentiment that it’s not about this season. I think they will do something to make the playoffs this year but something sensible. Nobody wants another offseason with no playoff appearance – wouldn’t really affect the on ice build but the little progress that’s been built this season off the ice would be lost.
If a second line scorer with an expiring contract can be brought in for a package highlighting someone like Grimaldi, then a trade would be fine. Tradfing a prospect with a high end potential, but low likelihood of attaining that potential, would be fine. But currently, the Panthers need to hang on to guys like Howden, who are expected to at least reach the NHL level, if not be a consistent producer. The Cats need to keep as much certain depth, as possible.
So where does this leave us for the deadline? I voted too soon, since this month is make or break, but there are two likely outcomes:
1) FLA is still in the hunt for the division, and at worst will end up with the 8th seed. Great! Swing a trade to fill in the holes, maybe a PK/PP specialist, a faceoff man, a 3rd line upgrade, but steer clear of big names with big pricetags. Think Radek Dvorak trade from ATL’s perspective.
2) FLA is just outside of the playoff race and the division is lost. Uh-oh. dump the UFA’s, firesale other spare parts for draft picks. Make NO trades to try to spark a playoff push unless they are extremely minor. If the team miraculously gets in, great. If not, better luck next year.
I am in agreement with Chris on these two statements… I’m not willing to give up any growing prospects JUST to make the playoffs this year (which will inevitably end in our quick exit). The future is more important to mold than current quo. We have a good team, when all the pistons pop together they are a solid team, so let’s make some spiked lemonade and see where we can put ourselves.
I hereby predict Captain Mike Weaver #43 will score 6G 20A -RCR 0G10A 1/17
Be impeccable with your word, don't take anything personally, don't make assumptions, always do your best...
I would have agreed with you,,,,,
at the Beginning of this season…BUT….since we have spent a large part of this season in 1st. place in the SE. Division…there are different expectations NOW……This team has finally …after 10 years of “drymouth” …given us a taste of water…..they have wet our appitite……Now we actuallt “expect” to win each game……WE cannot miss the playoffs this year……Dale would never bring in a guy like Carter…..he had so many problems in the locker room in Philly….they had to trade him…….Let’s tweak the offense to get more scoring because That’s Our Problem………no big names and definitely NO CARTER.
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