Florida Panthers 2012 GVT vs. Expectations

March 11, 2012: Sunrise, FL, USA; Florida Panthers defenseman Jason Garrison (left) defenseman Ed Jovanovski (center) both celebrate their 2-0 win with goalie Jose Theodore (right) after defeating the Carolina Hurricanes at the BankAtlantic Center. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

As you may have noticed over the season, I generally tend to use advanced statistics to analyze players. One of the stats, as well as my personal favorite, is Goals-Versus Threshold (GVT). GVT measures a player's performance vs. a replacement level (AHL call-up) player. An overall GVT originates from a player's offensive, defensive, and shootout GVT. For a more detailed explanation, watch this video featuring Hockey Prospectus founder Andrew Rothstein.

After the jump, check out the 2011-12 VUKOTA Projections and how they fare against the results for the 2012 Florida Panthers.

Forwards

Player GP OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT POGVT PDGVT PSGVT PGVT Differential
Stephen Weiss 80 5.3 4.5 0.2 10.0 5.3 2.2 0.0 7.5 +2.5
Tomas Fleischmann 82 7.6 3.1 -1.1 9.5 5.1 1.4 0.0 6.4 +3.1
Kris Versteeg 71 7.1 3.5 -1.4 9.2 4.5 1.8 0.0 6.2 +3.0
Mikael Samuelsson 54 4.3 1.6 -0.9 5.0 5.7 1.6 0.0 7.3 -2.3
Marcel Goc 57 2.2 3.3 -1.1 4.4 2.3 2.4 0.0 4.6 -0.2
Shawn Matthias 79 0.7 2.5 -0.3 2.9 1.1 1.5 0.0 2.6 +0.3
Sean Bergenheim 62 1.5 2.0 -1.1 2.4 4.0 2.3 -0.1 6.2 -2.2
Tomas Kopecky 80 -0.1 2.8 -0.6 2.2 3.0 1.8 0.0 4.8 -2.6
Wojtek Wolski 31 0.3 0.5 -0.0 0.8 4.6 2.1 0.0 6.7 -5.9
Michal Repik 17 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.7 -1.4
Krys Barch 51 -0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 -1.2 0.7 0.0 -0.5 +0.7
Jack Skille 46 -0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.0 3.1 -2.9
Matt Bradley 45 -0.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 1.1 0.0 0.8 -0.8
Evgenii Dadonov 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.2 0.0 3.6 -3.6
Mike Santorelli 60 -0.7 0.7 -0.0 -0.0 3.0 1.9 0.4 5.0 -5.0
Scottie Upshall 26 -0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 4.5 1.5 -0.1 5.9 -6.3
John Madden 31 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.7 0.7 1.9 0.0 2.6 -3.3
Tim Kennedy 27 -1.4 -0.3 0.0 -1.7 0.9 1.3 0.0 2.2 -3.9
Jerred Smithson 69 -4.2 2.3 0.0 -1.9 -1.5 2.2 0.0 0.7 -2.6
Marco Sturm 48 -2.7 0.2 0.0 -2.6 1.8 2.0 0.0 3.7 -6.3

OGVT: Offensive Goals Versus Threshold, DGVT: Defensive Goals Versus Threshold, SGVT: Shootout Goals Versus Threshold, GVT: Goals Versus Threshold, POGVT: Projected Offensive Goals Versus Threshold, PDGVT: Projected Defensive Goals Versus Threshold, PSGVT: Projected Shootout Goals Versus Threshold

Not many surprises here. Outside of the top line of Tomas Fleischmann, Stephen Weiss, and Kris Versteeg, only Krys Barch (!!!) and Shawn Matthias performed above their projected GVT. Marcel Goc comes close, but his one goal in seven shootout attempts drops his GVT differential.

Defensemen

Player GP OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT POGVT PDGVT PSGVT PGVT Differential
Jason Garrison 77 6.7 5.3 0.0 12.1 1.7 3.7 0.0 5.3 +6.8
Brian Campbell 82 8.1 3.0 0.0 11.2 3.5 4.4 0.0 7.9 +3.3
Dmitry Kulikov 58 4.6 2.7 0.5 7.1 2.0 2.9 0.0 4.9 +2.2
Mike Weaver 82 -0.7 5.4 0.0 4.6 -0.6 4.6 0.0 4.0 +0.6
Ed Jovanovski 66 0.5 1.4 0.0 1.9 2.3 1.7 0.0 4.0 -2.1
Tyson Strachan 15 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 -0.2 1.0 0.0 0.7 +0.5
Keaton Ellerby 40 -0.6 1.4 0.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.0 1.8 -1.0
Erik Gudbranson 72 -1.1 0.4 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7

OGVT: Offensive Goals Versus Threshold, DGVT: Defensive Goals Versus Threshold, SGVT: Shootout Goals Versus Threshold, GVT: Goals Versus Threshold, POGVT: Projected Offensive Goals Versus Threshold, PDGVT: Projected Defensive Goals Versus Threshold, PSGVT: Projected Shootout Goals Versus Threshold

Jason Garrison was the Panthers best player by GVT, with Campbell right behind him by 0.9. Despite missing 24 games, Dmitry Kulikov overcomes Mike Weaver as the third best defensemen (with the help of two shootout goals). Rookie Erik Gudbranson finishes last with a team worst minus-19, but shows promise with a 0.4 DGVT.

In the coming days, I will use the stat Goals Versus Salary to see what players the Panthers are getting the most out of their cap hit with.

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