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Two Games, Two Losses, Two Second Looks

The Panthers finish with one point out of a possible four in the back-to-back against the Habs and Rangers.

Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday: Canadiens 2, Panthers 1 (SO)

So, December 30th would see the Panthers earn a point by way of a near-literal last minute goal by Nick Bjugstad. The Canadiens had scored in the last minute of the second period on a Brendan Gallagher 29-foot snapshot. After overtime proved fruitless to each team, the Habs won in the third round of the shootout when PA Parenteau wristed one past Roberto Luongo in the third round.

Today's chart shows us that the Habs and the Cats were matched pretty much evenly through two and a half periods. Montreal led Corsi events, 14-12 in the first and 25-24 in the second. Florida started outshooting the Canadiens by a wide margin midway through the third as desperation took hold, and finished with a 24-10 edge in Corsi through the frame. The Panthers also had a slightly better overtime, by a 4-3 count.

Even Strength Corsi

Florida Panthers

Name

TOI

Corsi For

Corsi Against

Corsi Diff

Corsi%

ZS%

C/ZS

Jimmy Hayes

14:03

20

9

11

69

30

39

Aleksander Barkov

14:45

20

8

12

71

38

31

Sean Bergenheim

13:41

16

9

7

64

42

22

Jussi Jokinen

14:35

14

6

8

70

50

20

Dave Bolland

15:07

13

8

5

62

46

16

Brad Boyes

12:34

11

6

5

65

50

15

Willie Mitchell

21:01

23

13

10

64

52

12

Dmitry Kulikov

18:39

22

12

10

65

55

10

Jonathan Huberdeau

15:11

12

16

-4

43

33

10

Dylan Olsen

16:11

14

10

4

58

50

8

Brian Campbell

18:42

17

16

1

52

44

8

Aaron Ekblad

19:07

16

17

-1

48

44

4

Erik Gudbranson

16:32

14

10

4

58

56

2

Nick Bjugstad

14:23

14

14

0

50

50

0

Vincent Trocheck

16:03

16

17

-1

48

40

-2

Tomas Fleischmann

10:38

9

7

2

56

78

-22

Derek MacKenzie

9:35

5

7

-2

42

78

-36

Scottie Upshall

9:13

5

7

-2

42

78

-36

Some Takeaways

  • Jimmy Hayes was the big winner on the night. 69% of Corsi Events with him on the ice were directed toward Dustin Tokarski. This, even though only 30% of his faceoffs happened with Florida in Montreal's zone.
  • Aleksander Barkov had nearly the same statline, only with one less shot directed towards Roberto Luongo. 20-of-32 Corsi Events were positive, despite just 38% positive zone starts.
  • Jussi Jokinen, Dave Bolland, Brad Boyes and Willie Mitchell also graded out well above average. In a fair and just universe, they all would have added a goal for good measure.
  • Nick Bjugstad had the average-est night possible (short of his last minute heroics). 14 of 28 Corsi events were aimed at each goalie, and he started exactly half the time in each zone.
  • Nearly half the skaters in Florida's rotation ended up in standard deviation with a C - ZS difference of less than 10. That is, the number of shots directed towards each net with them on the ice was in line with what it should have been, considering each players' starting position on every given faceoff. Dmitry Kulikov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Dylan Olsen, Brian Campbell, Aaron Ekblad, Erik Gudbranson, Nick Bjugstad, and Vincent Trocheck all fit the bill.
  • Only three players in Florida's rotation graded out poorly. Small sample size could be Derek MacKenzie's, Tomas Fleischmann's and Scottie Upshall's excuses. The three had the three smallest ice-time samples for Florida. MacKenzie and Upshall each were present for 12 Corsi Events, including seven negative for a 42% Corsi. They should have done better, considering over three quarters of their zone starts were in the offensive zone (78%).

Montreal Canadiens

Name

TOI

Corsi For

Corsi Against

Corsi Diff

Corsi%

ZS%

C/ZS

Michael Bournival

8:13

9

2

7

82

50

32

Dale Weise

7:51

9

3

6

75

50

25

Jiri Sekac

15:11

11

10

1

52

36

16

Brandon Prust

15:25

10

12

-2

45

36

9

Lars Eller

16:20

11

14

-3

44

36

8

Tomas Plekanec

14:16

8

21

-13

28

21

7

Sven Andrighetto

7:16

9

0

9

100

100

0

PA Parenteau

12:31

7

18

-11

28

30

-2

Tom Gilbert

18:54

10

21

-11

32

35

-3

Nathan Beaulieu

17:37

13

11

2

54

60

-6

David Desharnais

15:18

7

23

-16

23

30

-7

Alexei Emelin

17:52

7

20

-13

26

35

-9

Sergei Gonchar

18:31

11

12

-1

48

60

-12

Andrei Markov

17:45

18

20

-2

47

59

-12

PK Subban

19:25

19

22

-3

46

59

-13

Branden Gallagher

15:55

12

17

-5

41

80

-39

Alex Galchenyuk

15:04

11

17

-6

39

80

-41

Max Pacioretty

16:36

10

18

-8

36

80

-44

Some Takeaways

  • Montreal was all over the place, but over two-thirds of the club had negative Corsi splits.
  • Michael Bournival was Montreal's shining star, with just over eight minutes of even-strength ice-time. Nine-of-11 Corsi Events were positive, despite him starting half the time on his heels in his defensive zone. Dale Weise and Jiri Sekac also graded out nicely.
  • Brandon Prust, Lars Eller, Tomas Plekanec, Sven Andrighetto, PA Parenteau, Tom Gilbert, Nathan Beaulieu, David Desharnais, and Alexei Lemelin all ended up within 10% of where they should have been. Andrighetto started 100% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and to his credit was not present for any shots toward Tokarski, with a 100% Corsi.
  • Sergei Gonchar, Andrei Markov and PK Subban slightly underperformed for the Habs. Subban led Montreal with 19:25 of even-strength ice-time and earned a 46% Corsi. His 59% positive zone starts tell us his Corsi should have been higher.
  • Branden Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, and Max Pacioretty each started 80% of their shifts in Florida's end, and all three were within percentage points of 40% Corsi. That shouldn't happen at even strength, especially considering each of the three played over 15 minutes.

Wednesday: Rangers 5, Panthers 2

Florida allowed the Rangers a three goal head start, then couldn't recover enough to get back into it. Tomas Fleischmann and Jimmy Hayes scored for the Cats, while New York saw Chris Kreider, Derick Brassard, Ryan McDonagh, Martin St. Louis and Dominic Moore light the lamp. Al Montoya stopped 29 of the 34 shots on goal he faced, while Henrik Lundqvist made 18 saves on only 20 shots. It was the first time in six games that the Panthers didn't lead the shots-on-goal category.

Although most of the game would see the Rangers doubling the Panthers in shots-on-goal, the teams were actually somewhat evenly matched in Corsi events. The Rangers led 15-to-14 in the first and 17-to-12 in the second before the Panthers actually out-shot New York in the third, 19-to-17.

Even-Strength Corsi

Florida Panthers

Name

TOI

ES TOI

Corsi For

Corsi Against

Corsi Diff

Corsi%

ZS%

C/ZS

Vincent Trocheck

14:30

14:28

7

8

-1

47

33

14

Aleksander Barkov

16:57

15:59

10

7

3

59

50

9

Brad Boyes

13:38

13:05

9

6

3

60

54

6

Sean Bergenheim

14:56

14:07

10

8

2

56

56

0

Dylan Olsen

15:59

15:17

14

16

-2

47

50

-3

Dmitry Kulikov

20:18

18:56

15

17

-2

47

50

-3

Derek MacKenzie

13:27

12:46

7

8

-1

47

50

-3

Jussi Jokinen

14:06

12:29

9

7

2

56

62

-6

Jonathan Hubereau

14:48

13:33

12

16

-4

43

50

-7

Willie Mitchell

19:37

18:34

13

17

-4

43

50

-7

Erik Gudbranson

16:59

15:19

11

16

-5

41

50

-9

Aaron Ekblad

22:47

20:43

15

13

2

54

71

-17

Scottie Upshall

12:22

12:22

7

10

-3

41

60

-19

Brian Campbell

24:20

21:37

14

13

1

52

71

-19

Nick Bjugstad

16:01

14:44

14

12

2

54

80

-26

Tomas Fleischmann

15:13

13:33

14

15

-1

48

75

-27

Dave Bolland

14:17

12:11

11

17

-6

39

67

-28

Jimmy Hayes

14:39

12:59

12

22

-10

35

86

-51

Some Takeaways

  • The only Panther who came out well ahead of the curve in Wednesday's game was Vincent Trocheck. In 14:30, he was on-ice for 15 Corsi Events, seven of them toward Lundqvist. His 47% Corsi mark was well higher than it should have been, considering he started just one-third of the time in New York's zone.
  • Aside from Trocheck, only Brad Boyes, Aleksander Barkov, and Sean Bergenheim didn't finish with a negative C-ZS score. Bergenheim graded out with the most "average" score of the game, with a 56% Corsi (10-of-18 positive Corsi events) and 56% positive zone starts.
  • Dylan Olsen, Dmitry Kulikov, Derek MacKenzie, Jussi Jokinen, Jonathan Huberdeau, Willie Mitchell, and Erik Gudbranson all finished with 10% or less deviation between their Zone Starts and Corsi rating.
  • Aside from his goal, Jimmy Hayes had a night he would probably rather forget. He started 18-of-21 times in the offensive zone, and managed somehow to be present for only 12-of-34 positive Corsi events. It's the only time I've ever seen a deviation of more than 50% from one to the other, and I can only assume this will represent an outlier by seasons' end. Another fun fact - not only did he have the lowest Corsi% on the team, he somehow did it while accruing the highest ZS%. It's really strange, because after watching the game I was left with the impression that he had a pretty good showing.
  • Aaron Ekblad, Brian Campbell and Nick Bjugstad all ended up with less than favorable metrics, although they were only a few of the handful that ended the night with over 50% Corsi.

New York Rangers

Name

TOI

ES TOI

Corsi For

Corsi Against

Corsi Diff

Corsi%

ZS%

C/ZS

Chris Kreider

14:25

13:18

11

6

5

65

29

36

Martin St. Louis

15:12

14:36

12

7

5

63

27

36

Dominic Moore

15:13

13:27

11

11

0

50

17

33

Ryan McDonagh

22:52

19:18

17

13

4

57

25

32

Dan Girardi

21:01

18:10

14

16

-2

47

17

30

Derek Stepan

16:02

14:17

13

8

5

62

36

26

JT Miller

13:25

12:16

11

9

2

55

33

22

Marc Staal

18:27

17:52

18

15

3

55

35

20

Mats Zuccarello

16:59

16:06

21

14

7

60

43

17

Dan Boyle

20:28

19:05

18

17

1

51

36

15

Lee Stempniak

10:44

10:44

8

9

-1

47

33

14

Derick Brassard

16:31

15:55

20

17

3

54

43

11

Kevin Klein

19:24

18:51

14

10

4

58

60

-2

Rick Nash

14:28

12:39

11

15

-4

42

57

-15

Carl Hagelin

16:11

14:25

11

10

1

52

75

-23

Matt Hunwick

17:10

17:10

11

11

0

50

80

-30

Jesper Fast

13:01

12:33

3

9

-6

25

75

-50

Kevin Hayes

12:08

12:06

4

7

-3

36

100

-64


Some Takeaways

  • Jesper Fast was only present on the ice for a Rangers-low three shot attempts towards Florida's net, against nine aimed at Lundqvist. His 25% Corsi% was the lowest on the team, even though he started three-quarters of the time on Florida's side of the ice.
  • Kevin Hayes was just a bit worse than Fast (and his brother), actually finishing with a Corsi that was 64% below his zone starts.
  • Two-thirds of the Rangers closed out the game with Corsi's 10% or more higher than their zone starts, indicative of wicked strong puck possession throughout New York's lineup.
  • Kevin Klein was the only Ranger who finished at or near "average."

It wasn't the best of times, but the first opponent of 2015 is the Buffalo Sabres. Stay tuned for more Panthers goodness on LBC in the meantime.