Analyzing the Florida Panthers: Corsi Ratings
How good is your favorite top line, really?
Conventional stats such as goals, assists, and plus/minus ratings don't factor into their computations the impact a hot (or cold) goalie can have on the bottom line. Who's really performing? How do we measure a players worth when they are shut out some night? This is where a Corsi rating really shows it's value.
To those uninitiated, a Corsi rating adds shots on goal, blocked shots, and missed shots taken by both teams while any (every) given player is on the ice. The amount of shots taken is indicative of puck possession. If on some night Dmitry Kulikov is on the ice for 19 minutes, the shots tallied for each team during his TOI is used to calculate his Corsi value. Florida gets 11 shots on goal, had 4 shots blocked against, and missed 8 more. Vancouver takes 14 shots on goal, has 7 shots blocked (thank you #WeaverWagon) and missed 10, just during Kulikov's ice time. Add each variable, (11+4+8=23) - (14+7+10=31) = -8. Kulikov's Corsi value for the night is minus eight.
Further explanation and Panther values, following the jump.
For computing Corsi over a season, it's more plausible to use a decimal instead of an integer. So in our test case, 23+31 =54, so 23/54= .426. Seems pretty low, right? It was probably a Canucks win. The thing is, when we use a larger sample size, say 69 games (minus injuries), we can get a much better picture on who is really getting it done for the Panthers more nights than not.
With that in mind, here are your current roster Florida Panthers
Sean Bergenheim - .528
Bergenheim tied and surpassed his career highs last night with his 15th and 16th goals. Due to a lot of missed shots on Toronto's part last night, his Corsi was minus-2, hardly fair considering his goals scored. Over the season, however, Bergenheim has led the roster in Corsi. This is indicitive of Bergy's dogged determination, and reflected by his low assist total (five).
Marco Sturm - .522
Sturm has missed a lot of time this year due to injuries. 14 NHL seasons has that effect on some people. He has only scored two goals and racked up one assist with a minus-nine rating. Part of the story of Sturm's high Corsi and low output is reflected in his low shooting percentage - 3.8% thus far.
Jason Garrison .520
Some nights, the LBC forum is all over this guy for lack of hustle. Meanwhile he has tied a record with 15 goals for defensemen (with Bryan McCabe and He Who Shall Not Be Named (rhymes with ray gobeester)). In the middle of his career season he missed two weeks and after returning picked up where he left off. You can even give him one full point share after Friday's shootout loss to the Pens as he played emergency goalie for Jose Theodore. His high Corsi rating is due to his high offensive output, 28 points at last count.
Marcel Goc .516
Goc missed two months this season with a concussion, but is fast approaching his career high statline of 12-18-30, achieved in 2009-10 with the Nashville Predators. With nine goals and 12 assists, Goc has been quietly excellent on most nights, winning over 50 percent of his faceoffs, and spectacular on others, providing the Panthers with very much needed secondary scoring.
Scottie Upshall .515
Upshall's fire has been missed for the most part of the season with a hip injury and a hernia surgery. When on ice, his speed and work ethic are on par with what Jack Skille gives to the club. Upshall was expected to contribute on the second or third line this season, but with only one goal and two assists in 17 games, we may have to wait for the second season to really see what he brings to the Panthers' table.
Brian Campbell .514
Wojtek Wolski .508
Kris Versteeg .507
Tomas Fleischmann .499
Mike Santorelli 499
Mikael Samuelsson .499
Shawn Matthias .492
Tyson Strachan .491
Erik Gudbranson .490
Stephen Weiss .487
Keaton Ellerby .485
Tomas Kopecky .484
Jerred Smithson .482
Ed Jovanovski .479
Jack Skille .470
Dmitry Kulikov .469
Mike Weaver .460
Krys Barch .446
Matt Bradley .414
John Madden .394
It's my opinion that Corsi reflects favorably on better players, especially over a larger sample duration. Florida's team Corsi rating is .491, which should be a benchmark. This stat is inapplicable to the #WeaverWagon, who has a low rating due in part to his blocking everything that comes near him. Thanks for reading!
When healthy, which Panther was (is) missed the most due to games lost to injury? (top five man-games missed)