When the NHL season ends, only one team is satisfied with the roster decisions that were made during the previous year. Unlike years past, the Florida Panthers have a very quick turnaround from the last game played until the first major event of the offseason. The Panthers have just 15 days to regroup from a loss in the Stanley Cup Finals to making the 63rd selection of the NHL Draft – barring a trade.
Of course, the front office has been in planning mode for months, not just for the draft, but also for the financial and roster decisions the Eastern Conference champions will need to make to build a team that can duplicate and exceed last year’s accomplishments. General manager Bill Zito has 10 pending free agents – two arbitration eligible restricted free agents and eight unrestricted free agents. Luckily, Zito does not have any marquee players set to hit the market. However, the Panthers have nine players entering the final season of their contracts in 2023-24. Zito has traditionally made his mark on the roster through dynamic trades, shrewd signings, and savvy waiver claims. If this trend continues, the Cats biggest moves this offseason could come from a swap rather than a splashy signing.
Let’s continue to look at Florida’s most tradeable assets going into this offseason and the arguments for why Zito should or why he should not consider dealing these particular Panthers.
Gustav Forsling • Defenseman
2023-24 Cap Hit: $2.67 million
2023-24 Salary: $3.5 million
Trade Value: Medium-to-high
The Saga of Gustav Forsling could be read as the NHL version of a Swedish Viking epic. A cast-off from three previous organizations, Forsling went from being a fifth round pick of the Vancouver Canucks to 122 games with the Chicago Blackhawks to being buried in the AHL by the Carolina Hurricanes to one of the most successful waiver claims of the century all before his 25th birthday party. While trades and waiver claims can seem negative, the positive is that there has always been another NHL franchise that wanted to give Forsling a chance and the Panthers reaped the rewards. Since joining the Cats in 2020-21, Forsling has developed into a bona fide top-4 puck-moving defenseman. He’s regularly one of the best in the NHL at breaking up offensive zone entries and his stick is rated as one of the most controlled amongst his position. Gustav’s offense has improved each year in Sunrise culminating in a 2022-23 in which he set career-highs in goals (13), assists (28), points (41), shots on goal (209), shots attempted (413), time on ice (23:26), blocks (106), hits (69), penalty minutes (40), and game-winning goals (3). He has been a plus-minus darling as a Cat, posting a plus-77 – best on the team in the three years he’s been with Florida. Forsling only appears to be getting better. After a largely ineffective 10 games in the playoffs last year, Gustav was stronger in the run to the Stanley Cup Final with eight points and posted a plus-7 rating in 21 games while playing an average of 26 minutes each night. If there is a chink in the armor, it is that Forsling struggled to find consistent chemistry with Aaron Ekblad and his preferred game suffered some in the more physical, tightly played ice of postseason hockey.
Why the Panthers should trade Forsling: At just under $2.67 million, Forsling provides tremendous value for a team in need of his particular skill set. Teams that would be interested could range from organizations in a contending window to those looking to rebuild around mobility. Gustav will turn 27 this July, so he’s still on the early side of his prime years. Florida could conceivably ask for a high round draft pick and an NHL player or premier prospect in return while also clearing a little bit of extra money to add to Zito’s $11.2 million purse to address the rest of the roster.
A former waiver claim, Forsling may be looking to cash in big. The analytics love him and a lot of the new front offices value the high-end metrics that often project him as a statistical darling. He’s succeeded under multiple coaches for the Cats, so the rest of the NHL is likely aware and values his skills highly. Forsling, with another good year, would put himself in a strong negotiating position when entering free agency. The market for 2024 is yet to be determined, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility to see Forsling command $6 million or more in an average yearly salary. The Panthers won’t be able to afford lucrative extensions for Forsling, Sam Reinhart and Brandon Montour, so one or more of these players will go into the upcoming season without a contract in place for 2024-25.
While the Panthers aren’t laden with talent, they do have a glut of left-handed defensemen in the system and nearly all of them are mobile blueliners – though not up to Forsling’s level. John Ludvig is a restricted free agent, but played on Charlotte’s top defensive pairing for most of the year in the AHL and would seem to be a candidate to return to the organization. Marek Alscher and Evan Nause signed entry-level contracts this year. Both are a ways from being in the NHL,
but a long-term deal for Forsling may block their eventual paths to the Panthers. Matt Kiersted is on a one-way contract for next season and Zito appears to have a lot of confidence in his ability to carve out an NHL role. None of those players can replace Forsling, but left side defense is one of the few areas the Panthers do have some system depth albeit without any blue chip prospects.
Why the Panthers should hold onto Forsling: He’s really good at what he does. Forsling and Montour, and some growth in Josh Mahura’s game, made the Panthers defense go. Those three provided the speed in 2022-23 and if Forsling were to leave, Zito would have to fill a gaping hole on the blue line for a puck-carrier and high-acceleration player. We saw last year how difficult that can be after MacKenzie Weegar was sent to Calgary in the deal to acquire Matthew Tkachuk. Gustav has wheels and endurance. Maurice, regardless of any offseason acquisitions, would have a difficult time replacing Forsling’s contributions on a game-to-game basis.
There is also the possibility that Forsling’s camp might jump at an extension. He’s been a waiver claim and knows how fleeting an opportunity in the NHL can be for a player. If Zito dropped a five-year, $5.5 million contract in his lap, he might just take it. Going into this offseason, there appears to be a need to upgrade the left side of the defense and find a more tactical fit to partner with Aaron Ekblad. If the Cats kept Forsling and created more cap room by making another deal – perhaps trading from the forward core – then the Panthers could potentially have room to extend Forsling and pull in another top-4 blueliner that addresses the lack of size and snarl on the back end.
Prediction: I think Forsling’s name will be in the rumor mill in a couple of weeks. The Panthers are going to shop some names and I think Forsling will be one of them. The injury to Montour limits the Cats in the trade market and teams will be very interested in Forsling’s status. I don’t expect him to move around the draft, but be ready to have Gustav mentioned in trade talks leading up to July 1. I do think Zito will entertain negotiations with Forsling first, but if the iron is hot, he may have to strike. If I were to put money on a Panther to be traded before the start of 2023-24, it would probably be Forsling. Still, that doesn’t mean that it will happen. Zito, especially with injuries sustained to Montour and Ekblad, might end up taking a conservative approach to the blue line this offseason.