Florida Panthers 2012 GVT vs. Expectations
As you may have noticed over the season, I generally tend to use advanced statistics to analyze players. One of the stats, as well as my personal favorite, is Goals-Versus Threshold (GVT). GVT measures a player's performance vs. a replacement level (AHL call-up) player. An overall GVT originates from a player's offensive, defensive, and shootout GVT. For a more detailed explanation, watch this video featuring Hockey Prospectus founder Andrew Rothstein.
After the jump, check out the 2011-12 VUKOTA Projections and how they fare against the results for the 2012 Florida Panthers.
Forwards
| Player | GP | OGVT | DGVT | SGVT | GVT | POGVT | PDGVT | PSGVT | PGVT | Differential |
| Stephen Weiss | 80 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 7.5 | +2.5 |
| Tomas Fleischmann | 82 | 7.6 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 6.4 | +3.1 |
| Kris Versteeg | 71 | 7.1 | 3.5 | -1.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 6.2 | +3.0 |
| Mikael Samuelsson | 54 | 4.3 | 1.6 | -0.9 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 7.3 | -2.3 |
| Marcel Goc | 57 | 2.2 | 3.3 | -1.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -0.2 |
| Shawn Matthias | 79 | 0.7 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.6 | +0.3 |
| Sean Bergenheim | 62 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -1.1 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 6.2 | -2.2 |
| Tomas Kopecky | 80 | -0.1 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 4.8 | -2.6 |
| Wojtek Wolski | 31 | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.0 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 6.7 | -5.9 |
| Michal Repik | 17 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.7 | -1.4 |
| Krys Barch | 51 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.5 | +0.7 |
| Jack Skille | 46 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | -2.9 |
| Matt Bradley | 45 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Evgenii Dadonov | 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 3.6 | -3.6 |
| Mike Santorelli | 60 | -0.7 | 0.7 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 5.0 | -5.0 |
| Scottie Upshall | 26 | -0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 5.9 | -6.3 |
| John Madden | 31 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 2.6 | -3.3 |
| Tim Kennedy | 27 | -1.4 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -1.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.2 | -3.9 |
| Jerred Smithson | 69 | -4.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 | -1.9 | -1.5 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -2.6 |
| Marco Sturm | 48 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -2.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | -6.3 |
OGVT: Offensive Goals Versus Threshold, DGVT: Defensive Goals Versus Threshold, SGVT: Shootout Goals Versus Threshold, GVT: Goals Versus Threshold, POGVT: Projected Offensive Goals Versus Threshold, PDGVT: Projected Defensive Goals Versus Threshold, PSGVT: Projected Shootout Goals Versus Threshold
Not many surprises here. Outside of the top line of Tomas Fleischmann, Stephen Weiss, and Kris Versteeg, only Krys Barch (!!!) and Shawn Matthias performed above their projected GVT. Marcel Goc comes close, but his one goal in seven shootout attempts drops his GVT differential.
Defensemen
| Player | GP | OGVT | DGVT | SGVT | GVT | POGVT | PDGVT | PSGVT | PGVT | Differential |
| Jason Garrison | 77 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 12.1 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 5.3 | +6.8 |
| Brian Campbell | 82 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 7.9 | +3.3 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 58 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 4.9 | +2.2 |
| Mike Weaver | 82 | -0.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 4.0 | +0.6 |
| Ed Jovanovski | 66 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 4.0 | -2.1 |
| Tyson Strachan | 15 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | +0.5 |
| Keaton Ellerby | 40 | -0.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | -1.0 |
| Erik Gudbranson | 72 | -1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
OGVT: Offensive Goals Versus Threshold, DGVT: Defensive Goals Versus Threshold, SGVT: Shootout Goals Versus Threshold, GVT: Goals Versus Threshold, POGVT: Projected Offensive Goals Versus Threshold, PDGVT: Projected Defensive Goals Versus Threshold, PSGVT: Projected Shootout Goals Versus Threshold
Jason Garrison was the Panthers best player by GVT, with Campbell right behind him by 0.9. Despite missing 24 games, Dmitry Kulikov overcomes Mike Weaver as the third best defensemen (with the help of two shootout goals). Rookie Erik Gudbranson finishes last with a team worst minus-19, but shows promise with a 0.4 DGVT.
In the coming days, I will use the stat Goals Versus Salary to see what players the Panthers are getting the most out of their cap hit with.
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